January 21, 2009
Ok everyone we have all heard it before, we will win for you, we are 75-10 in our last 85 picks. The bottom line usually none of these promises come true. If you are truely looking for honest and winning NCAA picks you need to do your research. You ask how do you that, well first you can sign up for a free pick newsletter and check out there free picks for awhile, you can call this a test. This will give you some indications on wether NBA picks without you forking out a dime. Also make sure that they have given you some research behind there picks.
Buying NFL picks, NBA picks or NCAA picks is tough that is why I would recommend testing a handicappers free NFL picks before ever buying. This way you are making a educated decision. This football or basketball season don’t be left out in the cold, make the right choice when making your handicapper selection.
November 13, 2008
What I am about to reveal in this article is perhaps one of the most underestimated aspects to betting on horses. Of all the expert betting advice I give, this ranks up there as one of the key items that all punters should know, hence the reason for me sharing this with you via this article.
So what is it that I am refering to? Its something that not a lot of people possess, but equally it can be learned and I am pleased to say that many of my members have learned from my many years of experience in horse racing. The important skill in question: discipline.
Why Beginners Face A Challenge
One of the biggest difficulties that punters have when trying to make the transition from practicing a hobby (as an amateur), to following expert betting advice and investing their time and money in horse racing for profit, is a lack of discipline.
Bookmakers to a certain degree take advantage of this fact, and often have daily promotions and special offers that may do nothing but make a punter lose their money. But the bookies exist to make money though, don’t they?
Well yes they do, however there is a perception that the bookmakers count on the vast majority of punters being willing to sit in front of a television or computer and bet on anything on the screen. Unfortunately, most punters that are betting on horse racing do exactly that and will therefore never be successful. These are punters are often happy with the occasional win, but they are operating an overall long-term losing strategy.
Important Points You Need To Know To Improve Your Discipline
As basic as it sounds (and I will elaborate on this below) it is all about having a strategy and sticking to it. Even a poor strategy is better than no strategy. If you’re privvy to expert betting advice you will be aware of this and appreciate that knowing when to ‘walk away’ is absolutely key to your success.
Betting on horses, if pursued as a serious venture, needs to be treated just like a business. As you will know from previous articles that I have written, I always preach about looking for value horses and not just backing favourites, so you need to have a plan and not just bet on a whim.
Whether you are following someone else’s strategy or your own, you must stick to it no matter what. Whether you win or lose, do not be tempted to deviate away from this strategy.
When Winning Can be Dangerous
Beginners often find that their discipline is stretched, particularly after a good winning streak, as there is a temptation to lump more money on your next horse. This is a classic mistake, as a punter starts to feel overconfident in their abilities leading to them allowing their discipline to slip.
A successful punter in this very same situation will stick to the plan. Indeed, the plan may dictate that your next bet will require extra funds (perhaps due to the horses value, form and potential), however it should never be done emotionally.
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November 01, 2008
The house edge, which is the commission that a gambling agent such as a casino, a sportsbook (bookmaker), or a lottery administrator charges, is a yardstick that measures how a specific gambling game is fair and reasonable. It is one of the most important factors that every player should consider whenever he/she is engaged in any type of gambling, inasmuch as it indicates how much of the money wagered goes to the gambling agent’s pocket and how much is redistributed to the winners.
Indeed, a house edge cannot be zero since casinos, sportsbooks, and lottery administrators have to make some money in order to cover their expenses, and to make some profit as well. Yet, a high house edge simply means that the players are unecessarily being ripped-off, and as a result, any gambling game with a high house edge should certainly be avoided by a knowledgeable gambler.
In this article, we shall compare, in the simplest way possible, the house edges of a roulette, an evens-odd betting, and a Cash 3 lottery game as representatives of the three major gambling categories.
The Equation
The easiest way to compute a house edge is to compare the actual winnings that are paid by the respective agents to the winnings that would be paid in a fair game or bet. A fair game or a fair bet is one in which no commission is involved; an obvious model is a game between friends. Therefore, in percentage form, the house edge is obtained by subtracting an actual game winning from a fair game winning and dividing the result by the fair game winning, finally multiplying by 100. Thus,
House Edge = [ (fair game winning - actual game winning) / fair game winning ] * 100
Roulette
Because of its simplicity and popularity, we shall consider the roulette as a representative casino game. A European roulette wheel has grooves marked by the numbers 0 to 36; the American wheel (also called Las Vegas wheel) has an additional groove marked as ‘00′. So, the European wheel has a total of 37 numbers, while the American wheel has 38. Internet casinos usually make available the option to select the type of wheel the customer prefers, but the brick and mortar casinos normally offer only one type. The winning number in a roulette game is the number corresponding to the groove where a spinning ball lands.
Now, consider a fair game in which 38 friends are playing the roulette at home, and each one selects a number and places a $1 bet on the number (no two or more players wagering on the same number). When the ball is spun and lands in a groove, the number marking that groove will be the winning number. The person who has selected this winning number collects all the money on the table thus making him win $37. On the other hand, if the game were conducted in a casino, the winner would be paid only $35. The difference between the two winnings applied in the above equation gives us the house edge of a roulette game as
( 37 - 35 ) / 37 * 100 = 2 / 37 * 100 = 5.4%
This means that every time you spend a $100 on an offline or online casino roulette, $5.40 goes to the casino and the rest is redistributed to the winners. Evidently, there are quite a number of casino games and the house edge varies from game to game, many of them having a house edge less than that of the roulette. For obvious reasons, a good gambler always prefers games that have low house edges, while the casino itself loves those games with high house edges. For example, the house edge of craps is 1.4% which makes it one of the most preferred casino games by the players.
Even-odds Sports Betting
Again, because of its simplicity, we shall consider an even-odds betting as a representative of this category of gambling. By even-odds we mean that the event (usually a sports game) has equal chances of going either way. An example is a tennis match between two competitive players each of which has an equal chance of winning the match.
A fair bet, in this case, is just a simple bet between two friends who just pick one of the tennis player as winner. If these two friends wager $1 each, the winner will collect $2, thus winning $1. If instead the bets are placed through a sportsbook, the winner will collect only $1.91, since the odds of an evens game at most bookies and online sportsbooks is 1.91. If you are not familiar with the decimal representation of odds, 1.91 is the same as 10/11 in UK notation and -110 in US odds notation. Odds of 10/11 mean that you’ll win $10 when you wager $11; and odds of -110 mean that you have to wager $110 in order to win $100. Anyway, since the winnings paid by a sportsbook is only $0.91, the house edge of an even-odds betting will therefore be
( 1 - 0.91 ) / 1 * 100 = 0.09 * 100 = 9%
So, this is how sportsbooks make a living. Since several internet sportsbooks offer odds higher than 1.91 in order to lure bettors, the house edge could be smaller than 9%, which is one of the things that the bettor should be looking for when searching for a sportsbook. On the other hand, if the bettor is wagering on parlays the house edge would be significantly higher than 9%; for big parlays, it could go as high as 40%.
It should be apparent by now that the gambler is better off with casino games than sports betting. It should also be noted that while the house edge could be a major factor to consider while selecting a gambling game, it is by no means the only one. For instance, one should consider the fact that casino games are mostly games of chance, while sports betting also involves a learned decision in selecting a pick, consequently leading to a higher probability of winning a bet.
Cash 3
Depending on the state you are in, this lottery game may be known by a different name such as Pick 3, Play 3, Daily 3, etc. In this game, the player selects a three-digit number from 000 to 999, and plays the number as a straight or as a box. A straight play is a prediction that the number will come exactly as selected while a box is a prediction for the number to come in any order. For instance, if a player selects the number 672 and plays it straight, he/she will win if the number drawn is exactly 672. Instead, if the player plays 672 as a box, he/she will win as long as the drawn number contains a 6, a 7 and a 2, in any order (276, for example). Obviously, a straight game pays much more than a box game for the same amount wagered.
Now consider 1000 friends (maybe in a club) selecting a number as a straight, each for $1, so that all the 1000 possible numbers are covered. When the winning number is drawn, the person who has selected that lucky number will be deemed a winner and will cash in all the $1000 collected, so making him win $999. This is a fair game. In the case of state lotteries, however, the winner will be paid only $500 in most states. Some states may pay a little bit less, others may pay a little bit more, but $500 is more or less the standard. The winner therefore wins $499. The house edge for a Cash 3 game will therefore be
( 999 - 499 ) / 999 * 100 = 500 / 999 * 100 = 50%
This house edge applies not only to the Cash 3 game but also to all state lottery games such as Play 4, Cash 5, Mega, Fantasy 5, Lotto, Power Ball, etc. So, whenever you are playing the state lottery, remember that you are wagering only half of your money on the actual lottery; the other half, you are just giving it away. Where this other half goes is not the gambler’s concern, since his/her main objective is to win some money in order to pay the ever present bills, or to get out of a miserable life, or to change his/her 20-year-old car. As regards contributing to education and other noble causes, there are other means of collecting money called taxes and charities.
Unfortunately, many states do not allow casino games, and furthermore, sports betting is illegal in the United States. The player is therefore left with no choice but to cross state borders in search of a casino, or more recently, to engage in online sports betting through the several offshore internet sportsbooks. Nowadays, there is a plethora of trustworthy online casinos and sportsbooks operating from Canada, the UK, Antigua, Costa Rica, and so on.
The Conclusion
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